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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 27

New Orleans Saints 21 – Atlanta Falcons 18

What Actually Happened

(:12) 7-T.Hill at quarterback. 7-T.Hill FUMBLES (Aborted) at ATL 27, and recovers at ATL 27. 7-T.Hill to ATL 27 for no gain (54-R.Evans).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.00 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.80 EP