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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 87

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to ATL 38, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 87, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 45, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model