Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Jets 10 – Detroit Lions 13

(9:26) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to DET 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 74, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model