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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2022-12-18 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

DET
57.6%
NYJ
42.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DET: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.179 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.154 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Zach Wilson in place of Mike White)
  • DET offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.111 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 21
–
NYJ 20
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

DET

Kayode Awosika G Out Ankle
Derrick Barnes LB Out Knee
Michael Brockers DE Doubtful Illness
Justin Jackson RB Questionable Illness
Mike Hughes CB Questionable Illness
Jason Cabinda FB Questionable Ankle
Aidan Hutchinson DE Questionable Illness
Frank Ragnow C Questionable Foot

NYJ

Corey Davis WR Out Concussion
Brandin Echols CB Out Quadricep
Mike White QB Out Ribs
Lamarcus Joyner S Questionable Hip
Quinnen Williams DT Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 20
–
NYJ 17

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:13 TD DET (6:13) 7-B.Mann punts 46 yards to NYJ 47, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-K.Raymond for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 14:16 TD NYJ (14:16) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 87-C.Uzomah for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 07:09 FG DET (7:09) 17-M.Badgley 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 10 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 00:03 FG NYJ (:03) 6-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. DET 10 – NYJ 10
  • Q3 11:58 FG DET (11:58) 17-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 13 – NYJ 10
  • Q4 04:45 TD NYJ (4:45) 67-D.Feeney reported in as eligible. 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – NYJ 16
  • Q4 02:00 TD DET (2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 19 – NYJ 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (6:59) 30-Ja.Williams left guard to NYJ 2 for -1 yards (56-Qu.Williams, 39-W.Parks).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:13) 7-B.Mann punts 46 yards to NYJ 47, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-K.Raymond for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:08) 7-B.Mann punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:21) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to NYJ 22, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 55%

    (10:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at NYJ 26 for 12 yards (30-M.Carter). Penalty on NYJ-22-T.Adams, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 12 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (7:09) 17-M.Badgley 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:31) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to NYJ 19, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 11 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (11:58) 17-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:26) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to DET 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 26%

    (7:22) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:44) 7-B.Mann punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 12 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (15:00) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to NYJ 25, Center-47-S.Daly. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 31 for 6 yards (51-J.Woods).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:00) 7-B.Mann punts 55 yards to DET 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 60%

    (7:57) 17-M.Badgley 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 22%

    (2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 25%

    (:14) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left to 8-E.Moore to DET 40 for 20 yards (31-K.Joseph).