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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 55

New York Jets 10 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 7-B.Mann punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.09 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model