Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 70

Detroit Lions 13 – New York Jets 10

(15:00) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to NYJ 25, Center-47-S.Daly. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 31 for 6 yards (51-J.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.03 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model