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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 36

Detroit Lions 13 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 17-M.Badgley 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.62 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP