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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 54

New York Jets 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 7-B.Mann punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.17 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 54, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model