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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 10

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:11) 7-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.43 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP