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Indianapolis Colts

HC Jeff Saturday
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Saturday 2022-12-17 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

IND
39.5%
MIN
60.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • IND on 7 more days rest than MIN
  • Matt Ryan (IND): -0.061 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIN defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
MIN 24
Projected margin: MIN by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

IND

Kenny Moore CB Out Ankle
Mike Strachan WR Out Concussion
Brandon Facyson CB Doubtful Illness

MIN

Patrick Jones DE Questionable Illness
Garrett Bradbury C Questionable Back
Cameron Dantzler CB Questionable Illness
Danielle Hunter DE Questionable Neck
Harrison Phillips DT Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 36
–
MIN 39

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:15 FG IND (9:15) 7-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 08:20 TD IND (8:20) 14-R.Wright punt is BLOCKED by 59-I.Odenigbo, Center-42-A.DePaola, RECOVERED by IND-57-J.Domann at MIN 24. 57-J.Domann for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – MIN 0
  • Q1 03:55 TD IND (3:55) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 35-D.Jackson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – MIN 0
  • Q2 13:11 FG IND (13:11) 7-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 20 – MIN 0
  • Q2 10:46 FG IND (10:46) 7-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 23 – MIN 0
  • Q2 05:57 TD IND (5:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-J.Reagor INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at MIN 17. 32-J.Blackmon for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 29 – MIN 0
  • Q2 00:12 FG IND (:12) 7-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 33 – MIN 0
  • Q3 08:26 TD MIN (8:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 17-K.Osborn for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 33 – MIN 6
  • Q3 04:59 FG IND (4:59) 7-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 36 – MIN 7
  • Q3 01:19 TD MIN (1:19) 30-C.Ham up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-75-B.O'Neill, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. IND 36 – MIN 13
  • Q4 12:59 TD MIN (12:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 36 – MIN 20
  • Q4 05:34 TD MIN (5:34) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 36 – MIN 27
  • Q4 02:28 TD MIN (2:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 4-D.Cook for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 36 – MIN 34
  • Q5 00:07 FG MIN (:07) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. IND 36 – MIN 39

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%

    (9:15) 7-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:20) 14-R.Wright punt is BLOCKED by 59-I.Odenigbo, Center-42-A.DePaola, RECOVERED by IND-57-J.Domann at MIN 24. 57-J.Domann for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:16) 4-D.Cook up the middle to MIN 31 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin, 54-D.Odeyingbo).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (13:11) 7-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:06) (Punt formation) 14-R.Wright pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Nailor.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 79%

    (10:46) 7-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:06) 14-R.Wright punts 48 yards to IND 27, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:40) 6-M.Haack punts 55 yards to MIN 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 5-J.Reagor ran ob at MIN 20 for 10 yards (41-G.Stuard). PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 10.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:06) 14-R.Wright punts 43 yards to IND 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers. PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at IND 21.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 97%

    (:12) 7-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 18 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:05) 14-R.Wright punts 50 yards to IND 35, Center-42-A.DePaola. 33-D.Flowers MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 34. 33-D.Flowers to IND 34 for no gain (29-K.Boyd).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 30%

    (11:23) 6-M.Haack punts 40 yards to MIN 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 73%

    (4:59) 7-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:15) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 39 for 13 yards (41-G.Stuard).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:42) 6-M.Haack punts 43 yards to MIN 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 5-J.Reagor to IND 24 for 51 yards (6-M.Haack). PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Face Mask, 12 yards, enforced at MIN 25.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:13) 6-M.Haack punts 46 yards to 50, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 15 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 47%

    (2:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins scrambles left tackle to IND 44 for 1 yard (54-D.Odeyingbo).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 69%

    (2:31) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to MIN 36 for no gain (58-J.Hicks; 54-E.Kendricks). Indianapolis challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:22) 6-M.Haack punts 45 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-57-J.Domann.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (:22) 14-R.Wright punts 63 yards to IND 2, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-83-J.Nailor.