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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(11:06) (Punt formation) 14-R.Wright pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Nailor.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.97 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 27, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model