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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 9

Indianapolis Colts 30 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(:12) 7-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.40 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 9, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model