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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 33 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 7-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.24 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model