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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 8

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 7-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.39 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 8, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model