Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 36 – Minnesota Vikings 14

(:15) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 39 for 13 yards (41-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.03 EP
62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 64, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model