Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 36 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 6-M.Haack punts 43 yards to MIN 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 5-J.Reagor to IND 24 for 51 yards (6-M.Haack). PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Face Mask, 12 yards, enforced at MIN 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.95 EP
58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model