Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 14-R.Wright punt is BLOCKED by 59-I.Odenigbo, Center-42-A.DePaola, RECOVERED by IND-57-J.Domann at MIN 24. 57-J.Domann for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.46 EP
57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model