Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 36 – Minnesota Vikings 36

(1:22) 6-M.Haack punts 45 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-57-J.Domann.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.55 EP
58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -2.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model