Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 36 – Indianapolis Colts 36

(:22) 14-R.Wright punts 63 yards to IND 2, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-83-J.Nailor.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP

72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.30 EP
28% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -1.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model