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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 3

Miami Dolphins 3 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(14:50) 7-J.Sanders 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 3, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP