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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Saturday 2022-12-17 · 20:15 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread 7.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

MIA
46.9%
BUF
53.1%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: +0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.139 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.246 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIA 25
–
BUF 27
Projected margin: BUF by 2 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

MIA

Eric Rowe S Out Hamstring
Elijah Campbell CB Out Concussion
River Cracraft WR Doubtful Calf
Terron Armstead T Questionable Toe
Teddy Bridgewater QB Questionable Knee
Jeffery Wilson RB Questionable Hip

BUF

Ryan Bates C Out Ankle
Jordan Phillips DE Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 29
–
BUF 32

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:03 FG MIA (3:03) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. MIA 3 – BUF 0
  • Q1 01:09 TD BUF (1:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 85-Q.Morris for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – BUF 6
  • Q2 14:50 FG MIA (14:50) 7-J.Sanders 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. MIA 6 – BUF 7
  • Q2 08:22 TD BUF (8:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 20-N.Hines for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – BUF 13
  • Q2 03:05 TD MIA (3:05) 26-S.Ahmed right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 12 – BUF 14
  • Q2 00:08 TD BUF (:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 28-J.Cook for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [2-B.Chubb]. MIA 13 – BUF 20
  • Q3 12:57 TD MIA (12:57) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 19 – BUF 21
  • Q3 02:34 TD MIA (2:34) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 25 – BUF 21
  • Q4 12:01 FG MIA (12:01) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. MIA 29 – BUF 21
  • Q4 09:06 TD BUF (9:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 29 – BUF 27
  • Q4 00:02 FG BUF (:02) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. Penalty on MIA-27-K.Crossen, Defensive Offside, declined. MIA 29 – BUF 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 11 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 27%

    (13:18) 4-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to BUF 14, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 20-N.Hines to BUF 19 for 5 yards (52-E.Roberts). Return credited to BUF 14 (penalty during kick). PENALTY on BUF-25-T.Jones, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at BUF 14. Penalty on BUF-33-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:52) 8-S.Martin punts 38 yards to MIA 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%

    (5:52) 31-R.Mostert up the middle to BUF 20 for 3 yards (90-S.Lawson; 21-J.Poyer).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 11 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (3:03) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (14:50) 7-J.Sanders 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:46) 8-S.Martin punts 49 yards to MIA 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 17 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 36%

    (10:13) 8-S.Martin punts 37 yards to MIA 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:08) 4-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to BUF 2, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-20-J.Bethel.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:36) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to 50, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:59) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to MIA 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (14:56) 4-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to BUF 49, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-20-J.Bethel.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 81%

    (12:01) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 49%

    (6:04) 4-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to BUF 7, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 7 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (:02) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. Penalty on MIA-27-K.Crossen, Defensive Offside, declined.