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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 48

Buffalo Bills 21 – Miami Dolphins 19

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 8-S.Martin punts 37 yards to MIA 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.99 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model