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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 19 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 4-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to BUF 2, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-20-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.91 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP