Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 96

Buffalo Bills 21 – Miami Dolphins 19

(5:36) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to 50, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.31 EP
57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 96, worth -5.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model