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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 83

Miami Dolphins 26 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 4-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to BUF 49, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-20-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.39 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 83, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 41, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model