Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 65

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(10:52) 8-S.Martin punts 38 yards to MIA 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.66 EP
63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model