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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 7

Buffalo Bills 29 – Miami Dolphins 29

What Actually Happened

(:02) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. Penalty on MIA-27-K.Crossen, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +2.08 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 7, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model