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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 23

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 31-R.Mostert up the middle to BUF 20 for 3 yards (90-S.Lawson; 21-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.29 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model