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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 6

New England Patriots 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +4.99 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 6, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model