4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NE Away

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
Sunday 2022-12-18 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

NE
41.0%
LV
59.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.158 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV on 4 more days rest than NE
  • LV offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.099 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 22
–
LV 24
Projected margin: LV by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NE

Jalen Mills CB Out Groin
DeVante Parker WR Out Concussion
Isaiah Wynn T Out Foot
Joe Cardona LS Questionable Ankle
Yodny Cajuste T Questionable Calf
Damien Harris RB Questionable Thigh
Jack Jones CB Questionable Knee
Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Concussion
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Questionable Ankle

LV

Alex Bars G Out Knee
Rock Ya-Sin CB Out Knee
Jackson Barton T Questionable Back
Andrew Billings DT Questionable Fibula
Jermaine Eluemunor G Questionable Oblique
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Quadricep
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 24
–
LV 30

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:31 FG LV (8:31) 2-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. NE 0 – LV 3
  • Q2 11:55 FG NE (11:55) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy. NE 3 – LV 3
  • Q2 05:22 TD LV (5:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-D.Waller for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – LV 9
  • Q2 00:09 TD LV (:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 10-M.Hollins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – LV 16
  • Q3 12:11 TD NE (12:11) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at LV 16. 23-K.Dugger for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – LV 17
  • Q3 01:26 FG NE (1:26) 6-N.Folk 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy. NE 13 – LV 17
  • Q4 12:57 FG NE (12:57) 6-N.Folk 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy. NE 16 – LV 17
  • Q4 03:51 TD NE (3:51) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 22 – LV 17
  • Q4 00:37 TD LV (:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 84-K.Cole for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NE 24 – LV 23
  • Q4 00:03 TD LV (:03) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LV 32 for 23 yards. Lateral to 16-J.Meyers to LV 40 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by LV-55-C.Jones at NE 48. 55-C.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 24 – LV 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 15 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 79%

    (8:31) 2-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:12) 17-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to LV 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 30 for 12 yards (50-R.McMillan).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:18) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to NE 12, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (11:55) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:00) 17-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to LV 32, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 39 for 7 yards (99-J.Collins).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:19) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to NE 9, Center-47-T.Sieg. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 26 for 17 yards (59-L.Masterson).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%

    (:35) 17-M.Palardy punt is BLOCKED by 51-M.Koonce, Center-49-J.Cardona, recovered by NE-3-J.Peppers at NE 28. 3-J.Peppers to NE 20 for -8 yards (34-B.Bolden, 98-M.Crosby).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 37%

    (12:57) 17-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to LV 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 37%

    (8:02) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to NE 2, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-10-M.Hollins.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (1:26) 6-N.Folk 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (15:00) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to NE 49, Center-47-T.Sieg. 25-Ma.Jones to 50 for 1 yard (59-L.Masterson; 41-M.Farley).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 71%

    (12:57) 6-N.Folk 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:32) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to NE 15, Center-47-T.Sieg. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 22 for 7 yards (22-A.Abdullah, 36-C.Bolton).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:27) 17-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to LV 28, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 42 for 14 yards (48-J.Tavai). PENALTY on LV-33-R.Teamer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 29.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:17) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to NE 24, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:20) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to NE 28, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:19) 17-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to LV 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 81 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-M.Hollins to LV 31 for 12 yards (25-Ma.Jones).