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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to NE 9, Center-47-T.Sieg. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 26 for 17 yards (59-L.Masterson).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model