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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 96

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to NE 49, Center-47-T.Sieg. 25-Ma.Jones to 50 for 1 yard (59-L.Masterson; 41-M.Farley).

The Three Options

GO -3.83 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.78 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 96, worth -5.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model