Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 74

New England Patriots 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 17-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to LV 28, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 42 for 14 yards (48-J.Tavai). PENALTY on LV-33-R.Teamer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.54 EP
56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model