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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to NE 24, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.00 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP