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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 31

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 2-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.11 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model