Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 79

Chicago Bears 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

(10:25) 16-T.Gill punts 39 yards to PHI 40, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model