Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- PHI offense: +0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- QB edge to PHI: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.095 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.183 EPA/dropback
- CHI defense: +0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- CHI on 7 more days rest than PHI
- CHI offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- Wind 17 mph
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
PHI
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 11:54 FG PHI (11:54) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern. PHI 3 – CHI 0
- Q2 06:52 TD CHI (6:52) 32-D.Montgomery right tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – CHI 6
- Q2 00:48 TD PHI (:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – CHI 6
- Q3 12:26 TD PHI (12:26) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – CHI 6
- Q3 08:50 TD CHI (8:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – CHI 12
- Q4 04:25 TD PHI (4:25) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-96-A.Watts, Defensive Offside, declined. PHI 23 – CHI 13
- Q4 02:53 TD CHI (2:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 13-B.Pringle for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 25 – CHI 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 68%
(9:03) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 18-D.Pettis.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(2:21) 13-B.Kern punts 40 yards to CHI 25, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at CHI 29 for 4 yards (45-R.Lovato; 17-N.Dean).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(15:00) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to PHI 19, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 94%
(11:54) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 14 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(10:25) 16-T.Gill punts 39 yards to PHI 40, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 70Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 66%
(7:15) 13-B.Kern punts 50 yards to CHI 20, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at CHI 40 for 20 yards (42-K.Wallace).
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Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 66%
(3:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 11-A.Brown (33-J.Johnson).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 54%
(2:13) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to PHI 4, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-83-N.Webster.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 63%
(11:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end to CHI 31 for 3 yards (53-N.Morrow). measurement
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Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%
(8:29) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(6:56) 16-T.Gill punts 51 yards to PHI 25, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.