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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Chicago Bears
4th & 3 at the 32
Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0
What Actually Happened
(9:03) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 18-D.Pettis.
The Three Options
GO
+1.67 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.30 EP
- 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.02 EP
KICK
+1.07 EP
- 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
- 32% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT
+0.31 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
