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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to PIT 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-50-C.Wooten.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model