Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to PIT: Sam Darnold (CAR) -0.214 vs Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.047 EPA/dropback
- CAR offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- PIT offense: +0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
PIT
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:53 TD PIT (5:53) 72-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 22-N.Harris left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CAR 0
- Q2 14:19 TD CAR (14:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 2-D.Moore for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – CAR 6
- Q2 08:24 TD PIT (8:24) 72-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 30-J.Warren right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – CAR 7
- Q3 03:20 TD PIT (3:20) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – CAR 7
- Q4 11:57 FG CAR (11:57) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. PIT 21 – CAR 10
- Q4 06:19 FG CAR (6:19) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. PIT 21 – CAR 13
- Q4 01:09 FG PIT (1:09) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 24 – CAR 13
- Q4 00:23 FG CAR (:23) 4-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. PIT 24 – CAR 16
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EPp(convert) 61%
(13:04) 10-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to PIT 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 82-S.Sims to PIT 33 for 5 yards (20-R.Blackshear).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(6:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to PIT 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-50-C.Wooten.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(4:50) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to CAR 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 19 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(3:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to PIT 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 44%
(1:34) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62%
(:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 63 yards to PIT 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%
(11:57) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 16 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(10:32) 6-P.Harvin punts 54 yards to CAR 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 14 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%
(6:19) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 32 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 74%
(1:09) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.