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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to PIT 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.68 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model