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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 63 yards to PIT 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.95 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model