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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 11

Carolina Panthers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.19 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model