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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.38 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model