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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 33

Seattle Seahawks 3 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.20 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model