SF @ SEA — 4th & Data

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Seattle Seahawks

7-7 HC Pete Carroll

Thursday 2022-12-15 · 20:15 ET Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

61.8%

SEA

38.2%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

SF defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
SF offense: +0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
SEA offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
SEA defense: -0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
QB edge to SF: Geno Smith (SEA) +0.127 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.151 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

SF 24 17–31

–

SEA 23 16–30

Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 15

SF

Jimmy Garoppolo QB Out Foot

Kevin Givens DT Out Knee

Tarvarius Moore S Out Knee

Hassan Ridgeway DT Out Pectoral

Deebo Samuel WR Out Ankle

Samuel Womack CB Out Concussion

Kerry Hyder DE Questionable Ankle

Brock Purdy QB Questionable Oblique

Ambry Thomas CB Questionable Ankle

SEA

Tre Brown CB Questionable Illness

DeeJay Dallas RB Questionable Ankle

Ryan Neal S Questionable Knee

Al Woods DT Questionable Achilles

Joey Blount S Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 21

–

SEA 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 03:56 TD SF (3:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – SEA 0
Q2 04:52 FG SEA (4:52) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 7 – SEA 3
Q2 00:49 TD SF (:49) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – SEA 3
Q3 14:12 TD SF (14:12) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 85-G.Kittle for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – SEA 3
Q3 08:13 FG SEA (8:13) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 21 – SEA 6
Q4 03:39 TD SEA (3:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 87-N.Fant for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 21 – SEA 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 SEA 4th & 13 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(13:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to SF 10, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 81

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP

p(convert) 75%

(11:05) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to SEA 35, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(9:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to SF 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 SEA 4th & 18 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(2:25) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to SF 35, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud. PENALTY on SEA-35-J.Blount, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SF 35.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 42

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP

p(convert) 60% p(FG) 54%

(15:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback. PENALTY on SF-6-D.Gray, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 20.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 SEA 4th & 16 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(13:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to SF 26, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 34 for 8 yards (59-J.Rhattigan). PENALTY on SF-22-J.Jenkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 34.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 27%

(10:44) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 35 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 20

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 92%

(4:52) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(1:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to SEA 19, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 SEA 4th & 19 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 22% p(FG) 74%

(8:13) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 45

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 46%

(2:39) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to SEA 4, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-30-G.Odum.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 SEA 4th & 13 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 48%

(13:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to SF 1, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-58-T.Muse.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 SF 4th & 15 at the 90

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(10:44) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to SEA 46, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 SEA 4th & 19 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(9:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to SF 13, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 22 for 9 yards (89-W.Dissly, 59-J.Rhattigan).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 87%

(5:05) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
See the full breakdown →

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