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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Thursday 2022-12-15 · 20:15 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

SF
50.1%
SEA
49.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Geno Smith (SEA) +0.127 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.151 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SF 24
–
SEA 23
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

SF

Jimmy Garoppolo QB Out Foot
Kevin Givens DT Out Knee
Tarvarius Moore S Out Knee
Hassan Ridgeway DT Out Pectoral
Deebo Samuel WR Out Ankle
Samuel Womack CB Out Concussion
Kerry Hyder DE Questionable Ankle
Brock Purdy QB Questionable Oblique
Ambry Thomas CB Questionable Ankle

SEA

Tre Brown CB Questionable Illness
DeeJay Dallas RB Questionable Ankle
Ryan Neal S Questionable Knee
Al Woods DT Questionable Achilles
Joey Blount S Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 21
–
SEA 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:56 TD SF (3:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – SEA 0
  • Q2 04:52 FG SEA (4:52) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 7 – SEA 3
  • Q2 00:49 TD SF (:49) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – SEA 3
  • Q3 14:12 TD SF (14:12) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 85-G.Kittle for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – SEA 3
  • Q3 08:13 FG SEA (8:13) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 21 – SEA 6
  • Q4 03:39 TD SEA (3:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 87-N.Fant for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 21 – SEA 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to SF 10, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (11:05) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to SEA 35, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to SF 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 18 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:25) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to SF 35, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud. PENALTY on SEA-35-J.Blount, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SF 35.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 52%

    (15:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback. PENALTY on SF-6-D.Gray, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 20.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to SF 26, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 34 for 8 yards (59-J.Rhattigan). PENALTY on SF-22-J.Jenkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 34.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 26%

    (10:44) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 35 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 92%

    (4:52) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to SEA 19, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 19 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 74%

    (8:13) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 44%

    (2:39) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to SEA 4, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-30-G.Odum.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 13 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 47%

    (13:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to SF 1, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-58-T.Muse.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 15 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:44) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to SEA 46, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 19 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to SF 13, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 22 for 9 yards (89-W.Dissly, 59-J.Rhattigan).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 87%

    (5:05) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.