4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to SEA 4, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-30-G.Odum.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.28 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP