Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 6 – San Francisco 49ers 21

(9:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to SF 13, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 22 for 9 yards (89-W.Dissly, 59-J.Rhattigan).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.96 EP
75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model