Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to SF 35, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud. PENALTY on SEA-35-J.Blount, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SF 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.51 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model