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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 42

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback. PENALTY on SF-6-D.Gray, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.11 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP